Airbnb vs Long-Term Rent in 25 U.S. Markets: Short-Term Wins on Paper. After Costs, It's Closer.

Ask almost any calculator whether a property earns more as an Airbnb or on a 12-month lease and the answer comes back "short-term" with a big number attached. So we ran the same public data our free Rental Property Analyzer uses across 25 U.S. markets, from New York to Gatlinburg, to see how often that answer holds up.

On gross income, short-term won in all 25 markets. After typical operating costs, it lost in 4 of them, and in several more the edge was so thin that furnishing the place would take years to pay back.

How we compared them

• Short-term: city-wide averages from AirROI market data: average nightly rate, occupancy and annual gross per listing. These cover all listing sizes together, from studios to large homes.
• Long-term: 2-bedroom rent in a central ZIP code for each city, the midpoint of two public benchmarks: U.S. Census ACS median gross rent (2024) and HUD Fair Market Rent (fiscal year 2027).
• Costs: the same planning rules of thumb our analyzer shows its users, not measured data. Long-term: 6% vacancy, 8% management, 5% maintenance. Short-term: 20% management, 5% maintenance, 4% supplies, $250 a month in utilities, plus about $15,000 to furnish.
• Not included: mortgage, property tax, insurance and income tax. Those hit both strategies, and short-term insurance usually costs more.

Because the short-term figures mix every listing size while the long-term figures are 2-bedroom rents, treat each city as a direction, not a forecast for a specific property. Data pulled October 2, 2026.

The headline numbers

• Median gross: short-term earned 1.64 times long-term rent.
• Median after operating costs: 1.32 times. A big drop, but still ahead in most places.
• Occupancy needed just to match long-term rent: a median of 29%, against a typical actual occupancy of 47%. That cushion is why short-term looks so good on paper.
• Where short-term lost after costs: Houston, Charlotte, Tampa and Philadelphia.

All 25 markets

Sorted from biggest short-term advantage to smallest, after operating costs. "Occupancy to match" is the occupancy a short-term rental at that city's average nightly rate needs just to gross what the long-term rent grosses, before its higher costs.

What the pattern says

Tourism markets are a different game. Gatlinburg, New Orleans, Scottsdale, Savannah and Nashville pair high nightly rates with relatively modest long-term rents. In those places short-term came out 2 to 4 times ahead even after costs, and the $15,000 furnishing bill paid back in well under a year.

Big, expensive rental cities are close calls. In New York, Seattle and Dallas, long-term rent is high enough that short-term's edge almost disappears once you pay for management, cleaning supplies and utilities. In New York it was about $700 a year, which would take two decades to cover the furniture. New York City also sharply restricts short stays, which may explain why its average stay in the data is about 10 nights.

Ordinary metros can flip. Houston, Charlotte, Tampa and Philadelphia have plenty of short-term listings, but average nightly rates in the low $200s and solid long-term rents. There, a well-run lease beat the average short-term rental before counting the extra work.

Three things the averages hide

• Your property is not the average listing. A 2-bed condo downtown and a 5-bed lake house sit in the same city average. The size, location and quality of your unit can swing results more than the city does.
• Local rules come first. Permits, night caps, primary-residence rules and HOA bans can make short-term letting impossible regardless of the math. Check your city and your HOA before running any numbers.
• Short-term is a job. Turnovers, guest messages, restocking, reviews and repairs with a guest in the unit. A 20% management fee covers that work if you hire it out; if you do it yourself, the "extra" income is partly your wages.

Run it for your own address

Averages tell you where to look. Our free Rental Property Analyzer runs this same comparison for a specific address and price, with your own rent, occupancy and costs if you have them, and a panel of six AI reviewers (property manager, investor, lender and more) reading the result.

And if the answer is "both", with a few units on leases and a few on Airbnb, that's exactly the portfolio TraxKey AI is built for: leases, renewals, guest turnovers and repairs in one system, with AI handling the coordination. If you're still deciding when to switch a unit, our post on the 90-day renewal window covers how to time it.

Sources: AirROI market data (city averages, all listing sizes, retrieved 2026-10-02); U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year estimates, table B25031 (2024); HUD Fair Market Rents, FY2027. Cost assumptions are planning rules of thumb, not measurements. This is general information, not investment advice.